Crunching numbers on Iowa school enrollment for 2023-24
How this year's snapshot fits into long-term trends
The big headline with the release of Iowa school enrollment data for 2023-24 was that 16,757 participants are using education savings accounts, otherwise known as vouchers, for private schools. The smaller headline was the slight decline of 0.57% in overall public school certified enrollment. Of Iowa’s 325 public districts, 211 dropped in enrollment while 114 gained.
In 2023-24, there are 102 school districts with a certified enrollment under 500, 112 between 500 and 1,000, 66 between 1,000 and 2,000, 26 between 2,000 and 5,000, and 19 at 5,000-plus. Diagonal is the smallest, a title it has held often, but Essex is the smallest that does not engage in whole-grade or partial-day sharing with others.
Due to supplementary weighting formulas, certified enrollment is expressed in decimals and is not a direct head count — but it’s reasonably close.
Two cities, two trajectories
The Waterloo Community School District is proposing a change that hasn’t been seen in Iowa in decades.
Sixty years after Waterloo became a three-high-school district, and nearly 40 years after it was reduced to two, the school board is discussing construction of a new single-site facility. The “One high school, one community, one Waterloo” plan would place all students in grades 10-12 at one location and turn the East and West sites into schools for grades 8-9. The new school would be built next to Waterloo Central Middle School/Waterloo Career Center, with a projected opening of 2028. Ironically, it was Central that lost its high school status in 1988 after being open for only 16 years. (It replaced Orange Township, a rural consolidated school that joined Waterloo in 1964.)
The closest analog in Iowa history to this change is Sioux City going from four high schools to three newly constructed ones in 1972.
Waterloo’s enrollment has been relatively stable for decades, but the district believes that a completely new facility built with local-option sales tax money is the best way forward.
The district following Waterloo in alphabetical order, Waukee, has a much different story to tell.
The Waukee school district absorbs the growth of not just the city of Waukee, but the Dallas County portions of other suburbs. When Waukee Northwest High School opened in 2021, the school district went from being the largest one-high-school district in the state to being the largest two-high-school district in the state. Its 11th elementary school will open next August and its sixth middle school the August after that.
In the past decade, Waukee’s yearly additions were the enrollment equivalents of North Tama, Madrid, Earlham, Cardinal, Lake Mills, East Union, Harris-Lake Park, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, East Buchanan and North Butler. If Waukee could break itself up into eight high schools, it would be its own Class 3A football district.
Separating the suburbs
The massive growth in suburban districts masks a decline in the rest of Iowa. In 20 years (2004-24), while statewide enrollment hovered above 483,000 at both ends of that span, eight districts’ combined enrollment went up by 29,000.
Those eight districts are Ankeny, Clear Creek Amana, Iowa City, Johnston, Linn-Mar, Pleasant Valley, Southeast Polk and Waukee. (Iowa City may seem like it doesn’t fit, but it splits Coralville and North Liberty with CCA. The boundary line even goes through Coral Ridge Mall.) The combined statewide enrollment outside of those districts has dropped by 5 percent in a decade.
Early effect of ESAs
The education savings accounts are one year into a three-year rollout, and their effects are just beginning to be felt. In Tama County, one of 41 counties that doesn’t have a private school, seven voucher applications were approved. A group that includes Rep. Dean Fisher, R-Montour, is renovating the former St. Patrick’s Catholic Church in Tama into Tama-Toledo Christian School, with an opening anticipated in 2025.
In 2022, Fisher defeated Rep. David Maxwell, R-Gibson, in a redistricting-based primary. Fisher, who called Gov. Kim Reynolds’ voucher plan “critical legislation that supports parental choice in education,” was endorsed by both Reynolds and the Family Leader that year.
Previous explorations of Iowa enrollment trends can be found on the Iowa Highway Ends blog, including a deep dive into the 2001-15 span.
My other work can be found on my website, Iowa Highway Ends, and its blog.
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"If Waukee could break itself up into eight high schools, it would be its own Class 3A football district.".....that's insane.
Their free-and-reduced modifier would probably send the whole conference into 4A classification for football though.
Also, Tama County has the private/tribally controlled Meskwaki Settlement School.
I don't see a way that a private Christian school in Tama-Toledo won't directly and negatively impact South Tama public schools. Our enrollment dropped around 50 this past fall. They are anticipating serving a student base of around 100 when they open. And they'll be competing for school staff in an area that is having an increasingly difficult time recruiting staff. And our own state legislator is chairing the board for this private school endeavor.